Fair Weather or Stormy Waters: Making choices amidst uncertainty

“At sea, things appear different.” Nathaniel Philbrick 

(This piece is based on an article I wrote a few years ago amidst the Covid pandemic but that has come to my mind over the past few weeks as we enter what may well be a stormy year for the nonprofit sector. A couple of caveats before we begin. I am a born and raised Albertan and my knowledge of seafaring matters comes largely through repeatedly watching Master and Commander, so take those aspects with a grain of salt. I recognize too, that predicting what might happen economically and politically in our world can be largely speculative, so the following reworking of this article is perhaps my way of trying to understand an increasingly un-understandable future.)  

One of my favourite books is In the Heart of the Sea by Nathaniel Philbrick. It is the remarkable story of the whaleship Essex which sets sail in 1820 from Nantucket and provides an account of the journey which would become the basis for Herman Melville’s classic work of fiction, Moby Dick. 

There is a passage early in the book that recounts the ship’s first challenge of the voyage that, although minor in comparison to having one’s ship rammed by an angry whale later on, has stuck with me over the years. As the ship sails eastward towards Africa, a storm forms on the horizon. Initially it appears to be just a squall, and they continue full speed ahead with all sails set. As the storm nears, the captain and crew recognize that this is no minor squall. It is a severe storm that will require them to choose a course of action.

 Philbrick lays out the choices a captain has when a major storm approaches. In short, a ship can turn and run, or it can sail directly into the storm. Both options come with risks. Sailing directly into the storm risks damaging the ship, perhaps to the point where the journey will be in peril. The seemingly safer choice of turning and running means giving up miles of hard-won distance gained with no guarantee that the storm still will not damage the ship. Either choice requires deliberate action and preparation to have a chance of success. 

There is little doubt that storm winds are blowing these days in the nonprofit sector and that we are in turbulent waters. Two questions we need to ask as we head into 2025 will help us decide whether facing the storm directly or changing direction is the wise choice: “Is it a squall on the horizon or is it a storm?” and “How prepared is our organization to withstand the inclemency?” 

The nonprofit sector – and individual organizations – have long battled headwinds, but perhaps few like we may see in the next few years. Several signs suggest that the storms of 2025 will be large with significant increased demand for services and likely all major funding streams under pressure. 

• The past four years have not been easy for nonprofits. The Covid years followed by an economic downtown and crippling inflationary pressures, have taken a toll on the resiliency of many organizations both financially and for our staff and volunteers. 
• The political and economic environment is at best uncertain and more likely highly worrisome. Whether or not the next weeks and months are filled with tariffs, export taxes, or supply restrictions, the outcomes are largely the same. We are likely in a situation where we have many pathways to a hard outcome. Should even a moderate option take shape in the next months, it is likely that all funding streams – government, philanthropic, and enterprise – will be significantly impacted at a time where there will be increased need for services. 
• Giving back to community, through traditional nonprofit mechanisms, is on the decline. While there certainly are other ways to participate in civil society, we are seeing a long-term trend of reduced donations and volunteering, two fundamental supports that, to varying degrees, are key to nonprofit sustainability. 

While there will be many ways to interpret the forecast, it is critical we be intentional about the course we set. If we believe that the clouds on the horizon for the sector are but a squall, or if we believe that our organizations are sturdy enough to weather any coming storm, then the choice is straightforward. Sail on. 

However, if we believe that the storms of 2025 will be larger, longer, and more powerful than we have seen for some time, or if our organization has lost capacity over the last few years, the choices are more difficult. Turning from the storm and giving up hard-earned distance gained is perhaps the most difficult choice any leader can make. 

The real lesson from the tale of the Essex however, is about what happens when we fail to choose. Faced with a storm that was much bigger than originally anticipated, the captain of the Essex fails to make the choice between either turning away from the storm or shortening sail and heading directly into it. Initially the ship sails head-on into the storm, but at the last minute, the captain changes his plan and tries to turn and run. By that time though, the storm is upon them and, as the ship turns, the wind catches them broadside and turn the boat on its side. The storm does not sink them but pins and holds the ship at a 90-degree angle, allowing the winds and waves to slowly tear the boat apart. The failure to choose a course leaves the ship at the mercy of the storm. When the storm abates, the ship rights itself, but it has suffered damage that will eventually prove to be fatal when the next crisis hits. 

There are no guarantees as to what the weather ahead holds for the sector. Perhaps the best and most important place to start is to have some candid conversations, internally and externally, about what the future holds as we move into 2025 and beyond. We need to ask hard questions about our organization’s viability and sustainability. We need to honestly assess the risks we face through both our choices and our indecision. Talk to your people: your board, staff, funders, and volunteers. There are challenging conversations to be had. Some of them will be private in nature but the issues are not. The best thoughts and insights rarely come from the narrowest range of perspectives or loudest voices. If you have been telling your staff, volunteers, and stakeholders that you are all in this together during fair weather, do not retrench to a trusted few in crisis. Talk to your community about what decisions you need to start making today to give your organization the best chance of weathering this storm. 

IntegralOrg exists to journey alongside charities and nonprofits in good times and bad. If a conversation would be of benefit, please do not hesitate to reach out at mike@integralorg.ca or our Contact Us page if you would like to talk. 

 “The future depends on what we do in the present.” Mahatma Gandhi